Jersey's Population to Eclipse Guernsey

Wednesday 27 June 2018

Jersey’s population could be nearly triple the size of Guernsey’s within four decades, latest figures predict.

By 2065 Jersey’s population could hit 166,000, while Guernsey’s will be at the tail end of a steady but prolonged decline and be just 59,000 – lower than it is now. But if Jersey’s immigration doubles from current levels to 2,000 a year, then by 2065 its population would be upwards of 220,000.

Already the islands are experiencing wildly different population stories, with Jersey’s growing by 1,300 last year, in stark contrast to Guernsey’s – which shrank by 107.

A total of 105,500 now live in Jersey – some 43,000 more than Guernsey. However, Guernsey’s population is expected to increase until 2034, when it will hit its peak of 64,000.

Within these figures are further signs of the pressures this will place on the island's infrastructure and funding priorities, particularly health spending – as the number of those aged over 85 are expected to double by 2034 and treble by 2047. Meanwhile the working age population is expected to decline at a rate of 0.4% a year, unless net immigration of between 200 and 300 people begins now.

However, Guernsey's Economic Development President Charles Parkinson said it was the makeup of the population which mattered most, not the overall figure.

"I don't believe in the overall number, its the composition which matters most and ensuring we do not get to an unmanageable dependency ratio. I think we need to relax the population management rules to increase the number of economic workers. I also imagine Jersey will take measures to restrict their numbers."

Guernsey’s trends have been predicted using a birth rate of 1.6, which is what the island has had for five years now, and net annual immigration of 100 people. Immigration and emigration levels in the island have varied wildly over the years. Between March 2007 and 2008, some 443 people arrived in the island. But in the year ending March 2013, a total of 464 people left Guernsey.

Pictured: Infographic explaining Jersey's recently published Resident Population Estimate 2017 (Statistics Jersey).

Whereas in Jersey during the last four years net immigration has been above 1,000 each year – and over the last decade, the population has surged by 11,500. If that continues, in 2035 the population is predicted to be 128,800 – twice that of Guernsey. 

Jersey’s Assistant Minister Constable Chris Taylor said: “It’s no surprise [considering] the previous government didn’t have any Immigration Policy, which the new government is actively looking at.”

Constable Taylor stressed that more important than the size of the workforce is its productivity. He said: “Businesses have got to be allowed to thrive, but rather than just having more workers, we have got to focus on increasing the productivity of the existing workforce through greater mechanisation and the use of IT. In this way, we can reduce the necessity of more workers coming into the island.”

Regarding the comparison between Jersey and Guernsey’s population projections, Constable Taylor said: “Guernsey has a financial problem posed by their flat-lining population and they’re not addressing their aging population.”