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Following the release of the States of Guernsey’s latest quarterly population, employment and earnings statistics, Richard Hemans, the IoD Guernsey’s lead on economics, commented: "The latest bulletin is as always full of interesting statistics from which we can draw broad conclusions about certain elements of Guernsey’s economy.
The population continues to increase, growing by 1.2% during the year to 30 September 2023 and the number of people living here is now nearly 65,000. Population growth seems to be accelerating and indeed Q3 2023 was the fourth consecutive quarter since the States approved an annual net migration level of 300 people that actual migration has exceeded this target. Net migration was so strong that we have almost reached in 2023 the population figure forecast under the States’ upper planning projection in 2028.
The island is completely dependent on net immigration to grow the population because the natural decrease in the population during the year ending 30 September 2023 was the highest in the last ten years. Births remain very low (they have fallen by 30% in the last decade) and deaths are very high (they have increased by 20% in the last two years). This socioeconomic trend deserves further investigation because we need to be able to grow the population naturally as well as through migration.
Net migration of 886 people was easily the highest number in the last fifteen years and shows how attractive the island is as a place to live and work. It is significantly higher though than the States’ target and it’s likely that the island’s housing capacity and infrastructure will be impacted in the short to medium term.
As far as the economy is concerned, it is likely such a large increase will be inflationary as demand outstrips supply, but it does suggest that the economy is strong and will continue to grow. Indeed, the good news is that nearly all the increase in the population was in people of working age and the dependency ratio continues to improve. Whilst this is essential for the long-term health of the island, it does raise questions about the social and economic impact of the pace of population growth.
The data on employment was good. The number of people in employment increased by 1% over the twelve months to 31st March 2024 and is now well above pre-pandemic levels. Unemployment remains low and the economy continues to create employment, which is positive for businesses, consumers and public finances.
Whilst the overall employment market is strong, it is interesting to note that the public sector is nearly the largest employer in the island, only slightly behind the Finance industry. It is encouraging that employment is growing in Finance and Professional services, but it is clear that the Retail and Real Estate sectors are struggling.
Earnings decreased slightly in real terms in the quarter ending 31st March 2024. Given the increase in employment, this suggests consumer spending, the main driver of the economy, was flat to mildly positive. High inflation continues to affect real incomes, but it is positive that earnings are keeping pace and employers continue to create jobs. It remains to be seen what impact higher earnings are having on company profits.
There is some interesting analysis of earnings by socioeconomic group and industry in the bulletin. It shows that the upper and lower quartiles are experiencing small growth in earnings, which indicates that pressure on income is being felt by middle earners. Furthermore, employees in 14 out of 19 sectors are experiencing negative real earnings, with only hospitality, administration and support, the public sector, private sector health and private sector education benefiting from real earnings increases in the year ending 31 March 2024."
