Sloan “rotated out” of independent fiscal panel by P&R sparking standards complaint

Friday 19 July 2024

A political standards complaint has been lodged after Policy & Resources decided economist Andy Sloan (pictured right) would be replaced on a panel offering independent advice on its policies.

Last week an advert appeared to hire a new member of the Fiscal Policy Panel - there had been no official announcement of any changes to the three person body which was established by the previous P&R committee.

When approached by Express to answer why a new member was needed, who was being replaced and why, a P&R spokesperson initially simply said: "The members to the Fiscal Policy Review Panel are appointed for a one-year period. The Committee has agreed to rotate the membership of one of the panellists annually and is recruiting for a new member with specialist skills that suit the requirements of the next fiscal period."

When pressed, they later confirmed Dr Sloan was the member who was being replaced.

Approached for a reaction, Dr Sloan said: "I have no comment at this time, I have filed a complaint with the Commissioner for Standards and am bound by rules of confidentiality."

The Commissioner for Standards is responsible for considering complaints about the conduct of States Members in Guernsey in relation to the Code of Conduct.

P&R says new specialist skills are needed on panel

Asked again for a more detailed explanation, P&R said: "'The constitution of the panel is a matter for the Committee including the size of its membership and how long members serve for. In the past, under previous Committees, the panel has involved only one member. The three-person panel was introduced by the previous Committee during the time of the Tax Review debate.

"The current P&R Committee has agreed to continue with a three-person panel, but believes there's merit in striking a balance between refreshing the panel with new specialist skills and perspectives that are relevant to the current issues facing the States and the island, and maintaining continuity in the important role of the Fiscal Policy Review Panel. In this instance, the Committee believes it would benefit from expertise in infrastructure investment for the coming period.

"The role of the Fiscal Policy Review Panel is different from that of other independent panels and therefore it is appropriate to take an approach that suits the role and purpose of this panel specifically.

"The timing for this decision is now because the contract for panel members is a one-year contract coming up for expiry, making this the natural point at which consider renewals and recruitment of panel members."

On announcing the appointment of the panel in August 2023, P&R made no mention of a 12 month period.

The Funding and Investment Plan and its political fallout

The panel's initial work was to focus on the Funding and Investment Plan, which included GST proposals and which major infrastructure projects should go ahead.

Dr Matthew Agarwala was appointed as chair, joined by Professor Breedon and Dr Sloan, all described as qualified experts.

"The Policy & Resources Committee recognises the importance of giving States Members and the community as much confidence as possible in its forecasting, and that the right fiscal challenges have been identified," it said at the time.

In October the panel produced its report, the only one to date, which was critical of P&R's approach, saying none of the scenarios it was considering were sufficient to place Guernsey's finances on "a sustainable pathway back to long-term permanent balance" or deal with immediate capital pressures.

The former P&R committee's failure to get its major proposals through the States ultimately led to a vote of no confidence and Deputy Lyndon Trott replacing Deputy Peter Ferbrache as president in December.

Deputy Trott and Dr Sloan worked closely together from 2008 to 2012 when the former was the chief minister and latter the States economist.

They also both had roles with Guernsey Finance, where Deputy Trott was appointed to the board in 2014 and two years later as chairman, a role he still holds.

Dr Sloan was deputy chief executive from August 2018 to July 2021, leaving a year after a new CEO was appointed.

Who currently sits on the Independent Fiscal Policy Panel?

Dr Agarwala, Chair of the Panel, is a leading economist with the Bennett Institute for Public Policy at Cambridge and the Tobin Center for Economic Policy at Yale. He has extensive experience working with governments and scientific organisations around the world.

Prof. Breedon is Professor of Economics and Finance at Queen Mary University of London, with previous experience at the Bank of England and in senior economic roles in the private sector. He is also a member of the Scottish Fiscal Commission and of Jersey's Fiscal Policy Panel.

Dr Andy Sloan is the founder of the International Sustainability Institute. He has a PhD in Macroeconomics. He has worked previously as the Director of Financial Stability and as International Policy Advisor for the GFSC, States Economist for the States of Guernsey, and Deputy Chief Executive of Guernsey Finance.