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Data-driven reviews into population reforms are continuing amid political concerns over immigration levels, but Home Affairs is waiting to see if its policies are the cause.
Several deputies questioned the Home Affairs President in the States on immigration policies, raising concerns with red hot levels of net migration on new long-term employment permits without the housing to support it, and fears population management changes are pushing more people from the open to local market.
But Home Affairs President Deputy Rob Prow said he was unsure if recent reforms to permits has led to an increase in the number of people migrating with dependents but vowed the review will turn over every stone.
“We need the data to see where the issues are... a lot of the issues that are perceived may not be actual issues,” he said.
Deputy Prow refused to be drawn on a timeframe for completing the review but said the collection of data has begun and that it would be evidence-based rather than relying on anecdotes.
But he said the scrapping of medium-term five-year employment permits and the extension of long-term permits, which allow for dependents and permanent settlement, will be analysed to see if they’ve had a negative impact.
Deputy Prow said it’s possible that the “balance” between short- and long-term permits could be wrong, but only data would reveal the answer.
Pictured: Deputy Rob Prow.
Net migration is running at the highest levels in decades, with population growth a top strategic priority for the States to prevent the workforce and therefore tax take from shrinking.
645 additional people were in Guernsey on 30 June last year compared to the previous year, while in the year up to March 2023 there was net migration of 713.
But if recent population growth of 1% is replicated for the next 10 years, the island’s population will top 70,000.
Since Brexit and the end of freedom of movement from the European Union the British Isles have seen an uptick in net migration levels, with more people than ever coming from outside the continent and analysis shows that more people are choosing to emigrate permanently with their families.
This contrasts to before where many EU immigrants would make shorter, temporary stays for work by themselves.
In 2022, as part of Home Affairs’ population reforms passed by the States more jobs were listed for short-term employment permits for workers from around the world, not just the common travel area or the EU, and five-year employment permits were scrapped in favour of issuing more long-term permits which allow people to remain in the island indefinitely.
It later relaxed the requirement for work experience for short term permits, in response to economic demands for overseas workers to fill long vacancy lists.
Deputy Prow this week defended scrapping medium-term permits, saying the process has been made simpler to make it easier for family members to enter the island too. But he said that will be reviewed, while noting that short term permits don’t allow for permanent settlement or family members to come along.
Deputy Sam Haskins question if the minimum requirement for English is being enforced for immigrants, which Deputy Prow said is being enforced “as much as our resource and ability to do so relies”.
He also said Home will cooperate with the new Labour government but is “very interested and very keen to understand” what changes it plans to national immigration policies in the context of the shared Common Travel Area.
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