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Some of the details from an independent review of Guernsey's air connectivity and performance have been published, showing that the island has "reasonable connectivity" and "favourable" reliability when compared to the other Crown Dependencies. But we are paying more for our lifeline flights.
The Committee for Economic Development commissioned Frontier Economics to carry out the review as part of its work on reviewing the island's Air Transport Licensing Policy Statement.
The full report will be published at a later date but we've broken down the information already available within the summary findings.
The analysis was targeted to cover the three 'success factors' of air route development as set out in the Air Policy Framework 2021-26, which are the Connectivity, Reliability and Affordability of air services to Guernsey.
The review compared Guernsey's air services between 2010 and 2023 with a similar number of routes and flights to and from Jersey and the Isle of Man.
Through that research a number of findings were determined.
The review of those comparable air links between 2010 and 2023 "demonstrates that Guernsey has reasonable air connectivity" said Frontier Economics.
Pictured: Aurigny and Blue Islands operate the majority of commercial flights in and out of Guernsey.
This result was based on analysis of the number of flights, routes and passengers from Guernsey to other destinations during the agreed time frame.
Frontier Economics said the "available data suggests that Guernsey has reasonable air connectivity to the UK" with "a similar number of routes and flights compared to similar jurisdictions".
However, the data suggests that that are "fewer people flying than Jersey, but broadly in-line with population differences".
To improve connectivity further, Frontier Economics said it has suggested some small changes which could have a big impact.
"Connectivity metrics have few if any specific limitations and broadly cover all relevant dimensions of connectivity," the report says. "However, routes and related dimensions of connectivity can change quickly and in a small airport like Guernsey small changes (e.g during peak seasons) could make a significant difference to perceptions of connectivity."
The analysis shows that between 2010 to 2023, Guernsey’s rate of reliability also compared favourably to Jersey and the Isle of Man.
Frontier Economics said that Guernsey's rate of flight delays (of more than 30 minutes) and cancellations compared favourably with other jurisdictions, "but it is acknowledged that Guernsey’s reliability worsened significantly in 2024".
It is also acknowledged that performance - in terms of reliability - is worse on some lower frequency routes such as Birmingham, Manchester, Leeds and Exeter than when compared to the high traffic routes such as Gatwick.
Pictured: Aurighy's 'black swan' problems of early 2024 damaged reliability records at Guernsey Airport.
Annual data on punctuality from the Civil Aviation Authority was used to report on Reliability metrics for Guernsey and core comparator airports between 2018 and 2023, with data from multiple reporting airports for each origin and destination across intervals aggregated to get the proportion and number of scheduled flights delayed by over 30 mins and the number of scheduled flights cancelled.
The researchers acknowledged that "it is critical that Guernsey’s air links are fit for purpose, with strong performance across air connectivity, reliability and affordability" and they said that their analysis shows that both Guernsey’s air connectivity and reliability "appears to be in line with key comparators".
However, it is also acknowledged that performance across both metrics was worse in 2024 than during the years prior.
The report identifies that Guernsey’s air fares are more expensive than the other Crown dependencies, and it "supports the consideration of further measures to improve the affordability of flights".
Frontier Economics found that the most popular routes to/from Guernsey cost 15% to 30% more than those in Jersey and the Isle of Man. The 15% difference is due to variations on the various routes.
Average fares were measured using data on air traffic from Guernsey and other airports between 2016 and 2023, from OAG-Aviation.
This data excludes taxes, fees and fuel surcharges, but does include commission payments. Non-revenue tickets were excluded from the calculation.
Pictured: Loganair also serves Guernsey Airport.
The research found some of the air fares are higher to/from Guernsey because of the differences in aircraft size, the degree of competition on routes, and other factors potentially including demand for air travel.
With the full Frontier Economics report still to be published, there could be some further interesting reading around the research into affordability of air fares.
The summary report acknowledges that there is "greatest uncertainty about the measurements of affordability", explaining that "it was not possible to understand, within the scope of this study, whether the available average fare observations on a route for Guernsey, Jersey and Isle of Man are representative of all flights on those routes".
The summary report also states that where affordability is concerned, "the analysis supports the consideration of further measures to improve the affordability of flights".
The Committee for Economic Development commissioned the report. In response to the summary findings President Neil Inder said his committee "will consider these findings as part of its review of the Air Transport Licensing Policy Statement.”
He said that work has had further impetus following the "significant concerns" raised by "the public, the business community and travelling public" following Aurigny's 'black swan' events of early 2024 which saw confidence in Guernsey's air links suffer.
"In some good news, the report demonstrates that the current approach to air connectivity seems to be working in as much as there is reasonable connectivity to UK destinations with a similar number of routes and flights to Guernsey, compared to similar jurisdictions," he said. "There is continued market confidence with both Blue Islands (Exeter, East Midlands & Norwich) and Loganair (Edinburgh) having recently announced new routes for 2025 which is encouraging.
Pictured: Deputy Neil Inder.
"My Committee has also supported the introduction of the new Guernsey-Paris route for a period of three-years, and which has already proved popular for Islanders wishing to visit Paris and in bringing French visitors to Guernsey.
"However, despite the positive market confidence we are seeing, passenger figures are still recovering from pre-pandemic levels and affordability of air fares is an area of concern where improvement is needed. The Committee’s view is that, as State-owned assets, both Aurigny and Guernsey Airport should be used as economic enablers; price and affordability are a factor in businesses making decisions in using the Island as a base."
The Committee for Economic Development is under a States resolution to review the Air Transport Licensing Policy Statement and report back to the States; this Independent Review will feed into that Policy Letter.
As part of that work, the ED Committee is inviting States Members to a full briefing in February where the report will be presented in detail, including information not yet published.
The Committee will also invite the business community to a full briefing in February.
Pictured top: Guernsey Airport.
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