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Football, it’s a simple game, isn’t it? At least it was according to the legendary manager Bill Shankley, who went on to say that it’s made complicated by people who should know better.
And that was decades before the step-change we have witnessed in the sport as it catches up with others like baseball and NFL where data analytics has played a huge role.
You can’t read a match report these days without a reference to xG, the expected goals ratio, or watch a match without presenters drawing lines on screens to show movement patterns and expose tactics.
Thanks to fly-on-the-wall documentaries, we’ve had a taste of what is happening behind the scenes at the top clubs as they use data to help make the most of their players, find out who would fit in with their squads, or work out the best ways of winning games.
This is a revolution that trickles through the footballing pyramid.
Guernsey FC starts each season with some distinct disadvantages, being unable to snap up players to bolster its squad if things go awry is one, things like the lack of height another.
Embracing data is one way of helping maximise performances in response.
Pictured: GFC now collates data on every player, through every match.
Boss Tony Vance has crafted a system in the background that can be compared to what Championship level sides are working with.
As he begins to explain it, though, he stresses that it is important to not get too bogged down, to remember that simplicity motto, and the importance of tailoring the information to the player - some want depth, others will respond better to a simple overview.
“I see it as a great visual learning opportunity,” he said.
In five years GFC has managed to streamline and optimise their data analysis system.
“People talk about the fine margins, the one percents, in all sports. If all the effort and research I put in provides us with one or two points and that means we survive, that’s why I do it.”
For the last three years, GFC has been supported by the Guernsey Sports Commission’s internship programme, which brings over students to study sports analysis for an academic year.
This season Ella Widdowson from Bath University has been working with the club, getting, Vance said, “inundated” with requests from him.
Every game is filmed and afterwards the players involved tagged.
From there, the depth of information available is eye-opening and the players can access it on their phones and watch the relevant moments too.
At its heart think passes, defensive actions, shots, crosses, the outcomes of those and where they took place. But it runs deeper.
In the past, simple analysis like shots on and off target or possession percentages may have been prized, but they did not tell you much.
A player may complete 100% of his passes, but if it is a centre back passing it two metres sideways, it means much less than a midfielder trying to probe forward, taking a risk and trying to carve open the opposition.
But more detailed data analysis has changed the way the game is played.
Pictured: Tony Vance now has tech on his side as he studies his players' abilities.
For instance, it showed that crossing the ball from wide but from between the box and the halfway line was easy to defend against - you will find teams like GFC giving up those crosses because of that.
But other areas of the pitch, and balls being pulled back in the box, were much more dangerous and likely to lead to a goal. It is how the likes of Pep Guardiola at Manchester City have set their sides up to play.
There is also a concept known as packing which gives a score for how many opposition players a pass beats, or how many are beaten in a dribble, going forwards.
Players have been signed on the back of high packing scores.
If you play Fantasy Football, you’ll know that assists are valued and given points.
But now pre-assists are looked at by analysts, acknowledging that all the hard work could have been done by a player before a simple pass for the goal.
Opposition videos are also put through the software to help gain insights into how they play, their strengths and weaknesses.
Currently, GFC uses all this outside of game day, but next season they will be rolling out live tagging in a game, meaning they will have evidence to make judgments on adjusting tactics and be able to give players insights at half time.
One example from this season where Vance will be adjustinghis set up thanks to the video analysis is on defending long throw ins.
It had become a particular problem later on in the season, the opposition always having a big player to launch the ball to at the back post. A switch from man to man to zonal marking will now be made from next season.
“It’s easy just to say you need to sort your defence out, but what is going wrong? That’s where video analysis comes in.
“We could get the team in at half time, hopefully see what’s happening in the box on a screen in the dressing room. Every team is different. It might be a striker blocking, someone moving around the back and no-one seeing him.”
The coaches will also have I-pads in the dugout to receive the information on during play.
Pictured: The tech used shows the goals scored, and attempts made.
As well as the video analysis, GFC also uses GPS tracking on the players.
“Manchester City, Arsenal, they’re the prettiest teams, but they are also the hardest working. We have targets that we set. Something I learnt from Fall (Colin Fallaize), he loved work rate, if each outfield player runs 10km, that’s 100km in total. If they all run 11km, then effectively you’ve got an extra player on the pitch, that should make a difference.”
The data also gives speed.
GFC has targets in place - to average 110km a game and a sprint distance of 12,000m.
“The game is dynamic, so it’s a really useful guide to your performance.”
It all helps drive competition and help motivate the squad through a long season.
The data also aids team talks and messaging.
Vance has been rejuvenated this season, working with a younger squad has had a huge role to play in that.
“We finished our season on Saturday and on Monday I was already planning next season. Last year I wanted to go away and forget it.
“Off season is a time for a break, but my mind won’t let me. It does allow you to prepare in a less pressurised situation though. I’ve started writing our playing philosophy, our core values, and those are based around the statistics and visual learning.”
(covering 27 matches up to the game against Met Police)
Total shots: GFC 283; Opposition 376
The team’s GFC play against in the Isthmian South Central like to get a shot off. One touch and bang. The Green Lions are much more likely to try and carve out the perfect chance.
Goals scored / shots ratio: GFC 41/ 1:7; Opposition 55 / 1:7
This is why it matters. Because the sides are scoring at exactly the same shots to goal ratio, GFC simply don’t score anywhere near as many goals and ultimately over a season that adds up. The table tells the story in a simple, visual way, and helps get a message to the players to get their shots off.
This ratio has changed through the life of the Green Lions. At the outset, when GFC first started, it was one goal every three shots, now in the tougher leagues and particularly this season, at one stage it had drifted out to one in 10.
It was highlighted as an issue and GFC players responded.
And because the opposition have more shots, they also have more corners, throw ins and free kicks because those shots have resulted in emergency defensive actions, which again is a good measure to how games could be won with set pieces contributing to approximately 25%-35% of all goals.
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