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Deputy Gavin St Pier takes a look back over last week's budget debate:
‘Unprecedented’ is a word that is often over-used in politics. But it was indeed unprecedented last week for the States to fail to complete its consideration of the Annual Budget in a three day meeting specially put aside to do just that.
There have been 19 amendments lodged so far, with two in play and another four to be follow. However, with a ten day interval before debate resumes, it is very likely that more will emerge. That number of amendments is not itself unprecedented. The record year was 2018 when 42 were lodged but the Policy & Resources Committee (P&R) were responsible for lodging 19 themselves. Why? Because we had engaged with members to find compromise and wording that, where possible, worked for both P&R and the members concerned. As a result, only 24 of the 42 were debated and the debate that followed was shortened. That was the consensus-system of government in operation writ large.
It was also unprecedented for P&R to be facing a Motion of No Confidence at the same time as leading on their most important policy letter of the year, namely the Annual Budget. The Presiding Officer, following the Assembly’s own rules, had scheduled the Motion for the next ordinary meeting on 22nd November. Deputy Meerveld tried to persuade States’ members that as a matter of good governance, they ought to consider whether they have confidence in the senior committee before they consider that committee’s recommended Budget. The majority took the view that the Budget was more time critical than the no confidence vote.
Those bringing the Motion, led by Deputy Parkinson, expressed themselves to be relaxed rather than champing at the bit to get into their debate. That may have been at least partly tactical, thinking that P&R might lose more support from members through the Budget debate. P&R’s enthusiastic support for the two amendments in play to fund the Transforming Education Programme (TEP) is certainly not bolstering confidence, given they had led the tax review debate only two weeks ago when the States decided to de-fund TEP as one of the ‘scenarios’ offered-up by P&R.
The two amendments will deliver the £111m ‘post-16 campus’ for The Guernsey Institute and a new Sixth Form Centre, albeit funded by more debt, without any clear, long-term strategy or source of financing to service and repay that long-term additional liability. Despite P&R’s own officials’ advising that this is “not sustainable in the longer term” it seems that the political support for delivering TEP is trumping generations of caution and prudence. In essence, the next Assembly is being given a hospital pass and tasked with finding the long-term funding mechanism. Given the composition of that Assembly is unknown (and unknowable), this is a very high risk strategy for the community, which may yet prove to be the height of folly. It won’t matter to this particular P&R as whether or not they win the Motion of No Confidence, they will be disbanded at the election in any event, but this is not the leadership that many expect from the States’ most senior committee. For those most opposed to GST, they fear that the TEP is inadvertently being turned into a Trojan Horse. They think a States saddled with debt and no strategy to fund it, may have no alternative but to introduce GST in 2026. A compromise, a consensus, a route through has to be found and if not by P&R, then by others.
The agenda for the meeting starting on 22nd November is now too long to be completed in three days and some of it will roll over into the mid-December meeting. Having finished the Budget debate, there is also the accompanying uprating report from Employment & Social Security (ESS) for 2024’s benefit rates. And there is still the Government Work Plan to discuss, which has already been rolled once from October. Together with a backlog of questions, statements, legislation and other technical odds and ends, it provides a metaphor and backdrop for the Motion of No Confidence to be debated. One could say it’s unprecedented.
