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Guernsey's current housing crisis is one of the most pressing domestic issues facing the States of Guernsey.
So much so, that the Development & Planning Authority (the DPA) has now launched a 'Call for Sites' as part of its review of the Island Development Plan (the IDP) - a key stage in identifying land that is suitable for development and capable of delivering much needed new housing.
For those people struggling to access suitable housing, there are a number of issues taking their toll including overcrowding, increased homelessness, and physical and mental health issues. In addition, increasing numbers of young people choose not to return to Guernsey after university, while some islanders are forced to move away. Economically, businesses and the public sector are struggling to recruit and retain staff.
The lack of sufficient specialised housing - particularly for older people – has also resulted in wider social strain. Guernsey's health service has been particularly impacted in recent years, with a shortage of retirement and nursing home spaces leading to increased waiting times and operations being cancelled as patients remain in hospital longer than necessary.
Some possible solutions to overcome the main barriers and increase housing supply include:
• The scope for major public investment in a housebuilding programme
• Ensure more land suitable for development (including publicly-owned land) is brought forward at a reasonable price and more quickly
• Properly resource Guernsey's Planning Service and address frequent criticisms that it is slow and inconsistent in its decision making
• Deliver essential infrastructure to support housing development and ensure funding
• Ensure that the construction industry has capacity to deliver the number of new houses required each year
• Ensure that Guernsey's special built, natural and cultural character is maintained
There is no 'silver bullet' to address the availability and affordability of housing and tackle the crisis currently affecting Guernsey; instead a range of solutions will be needed across policy areas and with close collaboration between the public and private sectors.
The DPA launched a limited review of the IDP earlier this year which is due to be completed before the next States Election in June 2025. A key focus of the review is on housing supply and delivery.
In that respect, the review will look at existing site allocations, the density of development, amenity standards and public amenity, mix and type of dwellings required, affordable housing requirements and mechanisms, and the level of development taking place Outside of the Centres in relation to the States' spatial strategy (as set out in the Strategic Land Use Plan (the SLUP)). Deputy Victoria Oliver, President of the DPA, has also stated that the review will consider expanding the boundaries of the Main and Local Centres, and may even lead to the creation of a new local centre.
The review will be informed by a public 'Call for Sites', which was launched on 11th September and runs until 20th October this year. The Call for Sites provides an opportunity for residents, landowners, developers and other organisations to suggest land which is - or could be - available for development, and which accords with the spatial strategy; information that the DPA will then analyse on a systematic, consistent and transparent basis following a robust and consistent methodology.
That methodology will require assessment of a site's:
Guernsey's spatial strategy, which has remained largely unchanged since 1988, has been to concentrate the majority of new development in the main urban areas of St Peter Port and St Sampson (the Main Centres).
It is arguable that this strategy is one of the root causes of the current housing crisis as it has driven ever-more restrictive planning policies, contributing to higher land values, decreased delivery of new housing, spiralling purchase prices and rental costs, as well as fuelling a sense of injustice amongst many in the north of the island whose quality of life has suffered far more from increasing urbanisation and congestion than residents of the rural parishes.
The current IDP was drafted assuming that 80% of new housing would be located in the Main Centres, the majority of which was expected to be delivered on 15 housing allocation sites. Island-wide, conservative figures set out in the most recent IDP Annual Monitoring Report ('the AMR') estimate that Guernsey's supply of land is capable of delivering 1,463 new dwellings as of the end of 2021.
In practice, however, only around a third of that supply of housing land (some 531 dwellings) is made up of sites that have received planning permission or that are under construction. Of those permitted sites, the AMR recognises that not all will actually be developed.
Furthermore, the AMR also sets out that only 52 dwellings - 6.5% of new housing permitted since the IDP was adopted in November 2016 - have been approved on the allocated sites.
Those figures will have increased following the more recent approval of applications relating to the Les Bas Courtils and Pointues Rocques housing allocation sites, but it remains the case that too few large-scale housing developments have been brought forwards under the IDP. The consequences of this are self-evident in the unavailability and unaffordability of suitable housing to meet the needs of a large proportion of Guernsey's community.
Delivering sufficient housing to meet the needs and expectations of existing and future islanders is critical to sustaining our island community, supporting economic growth and building resilience to future global social, economic and environmental challenges.
The States have recently agreed a strategic population objective which assumes that net migration will average up to 300+ per year over the next 30 years, as well as a new Strategic Housing Indicator for the period 2023 – 2027, which is set at creating an annual average of 313 additional units of accommodation- three times more than has been achieved in recent years.
In this context, and against the backdrop of persistent and significant under-delivery on the current housing allocation sites, the fact that the IDP review seeks to allocate only enough land to meet Guernsey's five year requirement for housing is remarkable. Based on past performance, doing so is tantamount to setting the revised IDP up for failure.
Instead, the logical approach to boosting the supply of new housing would be to allocate and make provision for the development of more land than is technically needed to meet the 'on paper' requirement. A similar approach has been taken in recent years in England, which suffers from similarly poor house building rates, and where a buffer figure of up to 20% is added to housing allocations where councils have historically under-delivered new housing. Again, based on past performance it is clear that not all such sites would be developed during the lifetime of the revised IDP, but by making increased provision there is a greater chance that more sites would be brought forwards and more new homes developed than has been the case historically.
A more radical approach still would be to introduce a new category of 'Built-up Areas' into the IDP's spatial hierarchy. Any such designation, which could focus on significant clusters of existing residential properties (even where these are not served by the full range of services and facilities as the Local Centres), might enable infill housing development to take place in locations where this is currently prohibited, and without causing harm to residential amenity, open landscape character or the natural environment.
This latter idea is something of a throwback to the Rural Area Plans of the 1990s and early 2000s, where limited infill housing development was provided for throughout the Island so long as it:
• did not represent an encroachment into open countryside;
• did not have an adverse impact on the character of the built form;
• did not occupy an important local open space or block an important open view;
• did not have an unacceptable effect on neighbouring properties; and
• achieved a satisfactory grouping in relation to neighbouring buildings.
As a further suggestion (requiring only modest changes to current policies) less restrictive control could be imposed over proposed dower units in terms of their size, the facilities provided, and the degree of independence occupants would thereby enjoy. This could lead to more families choosing to make provision for extended and multi-generational living, helping to deliver more appropriate housing for Guernsey's ageing population in a wide range of locations across the island.
The obvious benefits of this approach include:
Increased provision of dower accommodation could also help to meet the needs of younger Islanders, making it easier and more affordable for them to stay in or return to Guernsey in order to build careers and raise families.
Care would need to be taken to ensure that the majority of new housing remained directed towards the Main Centres, so as not to conflict with the SLUP which the IDP must, by law, be consistent with.
But with an increase in the number of allocated Main Centre sites and scope to revisit the current assumed 80-20 split between the Main Centres and other parts of the Island, this seems a feasible proposition.
Instead of doggedly persisting with the current, longstanding, and (arguably failed) spatial strategy, and with only allocating just enough land to, on paper, deliver a 5 year supply of housing, both the DPA and States as a whole have an opportunity to pursue a bold, new approach that is far more likely to garner broad public support than the current IDP.
Expanding the Main and Local Centre boundaries and allocating a greater number of housing sites should improve competition and incentivise landowners to release sites more readily than has been the case historically, potentially making it economically viable to deliver greater numbers of more affordable homes.
At the same time, removing barriers to property owners developing infill housing in existing built-up areas throughout the island and relaxing current restrictions on dower units would provide more opportunities to small building firms, further boosting the delivery of new housing as well as economic productivity. It would also be likely to deliver wider economic, social and community benefits by increasing the potential for younger islanders to build homes on family-owned plots, as well as making more efficient use of existing housing through extended and multi-generational living.
This is not to say that this approach would be a panacea. Potential infrastructure requirements, environmental impacts and enhancements to public transport options are just three issues that would need to be considered carefully.
Objections will undoubtedly be raised due to fears of urban sprawl, loss of open spaces and impacts on Guernsey's rural character. But any challenges must surely be capable of being overcome and any adverse impacts outweighed by the wider social and economic benefits that improved housing supply, delivery and affordability will bring.
