Projections show 30 bed shortage in long-term care by end of year

Thursday 02 May 2024

Projections show that an acute shortage of care home beds is on the immediate horizon as disagreement continues about how to fund long-term care.

The States were meant to debate an update on the Supported Living and Ageing Well Strategy (SLAWS) in the first half of this year, but the committees responsible are at odds on how to proceed with policy decisions that could end up costing some £30m. extra a year.

Just how stark the problem is emerged during a recent Scrutiny hearing.

"SLAWS in its own right is going to add tens of millions per year over and above what we've already allowed for in terms of long term care," said Policy & Resources member Deputy Bob Murray.

"That money's got to be found every year.

"We'll hit that buffer, actually at the end of this year, because we're going to be, we think, at least 30 hospital beds or 30 care beds short and no place to put them. So it's coming at us like a steam train.

"And I don't think the public has woken up to that fact at the moment, because if we do not find extra revenue, and we'll be as efficient as we can in terms of policy trying to deal with that, costs will start to grow vastly over where they currently are."

Pictured: "If we do not find extra revenue... costs will start to grow vastly," said Deputy Murray.

Asked about the 30 beds figure, a States spokesperson said: "The figure comes from work underway to develop a model of community long-term care that meets the increasing demand in a way that is fit for the future, as part of taking forward the Supported Living and Ageing Well strategy and the States of Deliberation's in-principle decisions from 2020.

"The figure is based on Guernsey's projections for its population changes and the associated increase in demand for long-term care."

Latest population figures show that the island has an increasing number of people above 85.

At the end of June 2020, there were 1,721 in this age bracket, that figure is now 1,922.

Talks about the use of the King Edward VII hospital site for a new care facility for up to 50 beds remain ongoing.

In January 2022 P&R said that "things could move quite quickly".

At the Scrutiny hearing, Deputy Murray said that the site was under discussion with one of the providers for care homes: "They are motoring along quite well with that."