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Guernsey’s population growth continues to be driven by net migration, according to the latest official statistics.
The population grew to more than 64,000 in 2022, and it hovered above this level at the end of the first quarter of 2023 at 64,091 – growth of 0.9%.
This is a slight increase compared to the end of 2022, where it stood at 64,037.
3,477 people moved to the island in the year up to March 2023, and 2,764 exited. That results in net migration of 713 for that period.
This is one of the highest rates of net migration over the past decade. In the year up to March 2022 it was 385, while the year up to March 2013 it was –464.
Over 30% came from outside of Europe, up 20% compared to 2018. The top countries were the Philippines, South Africa, Kenya and Zimbabwe.
Nearly 70% of those arrivals were people new to the island, the highest proportion in over five years. The most likely to leave were people who had lived locally for over 20 years, however, also setting a five-year record.
Meanwhile, deaths outstripped births by 129 at 615 and 486 respectively. That represents a population increase of 584.
The figures are from the latest rolling electronic census, with the tenth annual edition published yesterday. Data is collected from administrative sources and relies on actuarial projections from the UK.
Pictured: A breakdown of population changes between 2013 and 2023.
Over same period, there was a 16% increase in people aged 16 to States pension age.
The 65’s to 84’s decreased by 0.4%, while the 85+ group increased by 30 people or 1.6%. The number of children fell by 52, or half a percent.
There’s been growth in the number of households of approximately 1,000 between 2018 and 2023 to 25,289, with the largest increase being one adult residences.
The majority live in local market properties, with 20% renting and 10% in social housing. 7.4% are living in open market home, with a small portion of precise addresses not known for the remainder.
41% of those who relocated to Guernsey between March 2017 and 2018 were still resident in March 2023, with three quarters in full time education or employment.
The latest figures will be welcome news to the States.
The States agreed last year that an assumption of an annual net migration of 300-plus people was needed over 30 years to sustain the island’s workforce at 2020 levels, and it should plan on this basis.
If that can be achieved, around 31,000 people will be in the workforce with the population increasing to 68,000 by the middle of the century.
Although it has been warned that year-to-year stats should be taken with a pinch of salt, as matters outside government’s control can alter the rates of immigration and emigration.
The aim is to maintain workforce levels, but other measures may be needed to ensure sustainable public finances.
The dependency ratio in the year up to March 2023 0.55 which means that for every 100 people of working age there were 55 people of dependent age, or those retired or in full time employment.
This is lower than in 2022, but higher than in 2018.
FOCUS: '22 population growth exceeded States forecast
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