The exit plan...

Tuesday 05 May 2020

The States have released their full 'Exit from Lockdown' plan, with further information on what each of the six phases will include, how long they might last and triggers which would see the return of stricter measures.

Guernsey has been in Phase Two of the exit strategy for just over a week now, with a further change allowing households to increase their 'bubbles' added over the weekend.

But it's likely to take at least another two weeks before we can move on to the next step. 

Before Guernsey can enter Phase Three of the plan, Public Health must see the amount of community seeding drop or remain stable for four consecutive weeks, from the start of the second phase.

There must also be no new clusters of infection that pose a risk to the Bailiwick; hospital admissions for corona virus must decrease or remain stable; and local testing must continue to be available.

Working alongside Public Health, the States have come up with a number of triggers that would set the island back in the exit strategy:

Pictured: Information from the report on adaptive triggers.

When Phase Three does come into force, further parts of the local economy will be able to function but on a limited basis. While recreation time is likely to be extended, restrictions on gathering and social distancing will remain in place.

The States may consider allowing people to extend their household bubbles further.

Pictured: Information from the report on what Phase Three will look like.

Again, that phase is likely to last for at least four weeks while Public Health monitors the situation and keeps an eye out for any triggers.

Next, Phase Four will see many others return to their jobs, including those working in retail and hospitality, hairdressers and beauticians. However, many of the rules on gathering and social distancing will remain, meaning these professions may need to adapt and might not be able to operate fully.

Apart from bars and nightclubs, all other businesses, including non-essential retail outlets, will be able to reopen with strict hygiene and social distancing rules.

Pictured: Director of Public Health, Dr Nicola Brink.

It is unlikely that we will see Phase Four until towards the end of June, or possibly later depending on the island's situation. According to the exit report, which is subject to change, the phase will be in place for at least eight weeks while Public Health monitors community seeding and clusters.

People in Guernsey can look forward to Phase Five, when the island will return to normality in many ways but with a ban remaining on travel.

Within the 'Bailiwick bubble', most parts of the local economy will be able to work as usual, including bars and nightclubs. People will be able to take part in contact team sports and there will be a loosening of restrictions on public gatherings.

Finally, once a vaccine becomes available and it is clear that other jurisdictions are coping well with the virus, Guernsey will once again be able to open its borders to the rest of the world.

According to the timescales suggested in the report, it is unlikely that the island will reach Phase Six before mid-September and it is probable that this could be delayed further.