Covid rockets in Jersey, with 500 new cases predicted per day

Wednesday 14 July 2021

People in Jersey are being told to work from home again and "strongly urged" to wear masks in public, after new modelling forecast 500 new covid cases per day by next week.

Government ministers announced the new guidance at a press conference late on Tuesday afternoon. It was also confirmed that the final restrictions on stand-up drinking, nightclubs and private gatherings would not be lifted as planned this Thursday.

While direct contacts were recently told they no longer had to isolate, the 8,600-plus islanders caught in the contact tracing net are now being asked to minimise social contact, “think very carefully” about the places they visit, and avoid medical appointments and visiting hospitals or care homes if possible.

The decisions were taken by Competent Authority Ministers – the island’s emergency decision-making authority – today following urgent meetings of STAC, Public Health officials and the full Council of Ministers on how to address the island’s soaring virus case numbers. 

Yesterday, they stood at 1,399, with five people in hospital.

Public Health officials believe that, if current trends continue, the island could be detecting around 500 new cases per day by 20 July. It is not currently clear when the peak will be attained, but the island has already surpassed the peak of the second wave.

Dr Ivan Muscat, Jersey’s Acting Medical Officer for Health, explained during the conference that since 28 June, there had been a total of 10 individuals in hospital with covid.

Half of those were fully vaccinated, and half were above the age of 50. He also confirmed that half of the group were admitted originally for non-covid reasons, but swabbed positive on admission.

The Health Minister said that Jersey would be prepared for more people being in hospital if necessary, with 80 beds free as of yesterday. He also reminded islanders that some people with covid in hospital may be there for treatment for another condition, rather than being there due to covid. 

Ministers felt it was “not proportionate” to bring back legal restrictions or the type of ‘circuit-break’ measures in place prior to the island’s vaccination programme.

Officials said their decisions were based on: the success of the vaccination programme, the concentration of virus cases in the younger population, the dominance of the more infectious Delta variant, high levels of “covid restrictions fatigue” and a desire to move towards “living with covid.”

Jersey’s soaring case numbers have seen some school year groups and businesses forced to close due to staff shortages. 

The contact tracing team is currently under severe strain – some islanders are having to wait more than 24 hours before being contacted.

Pictured: The contact tracing system is under severe strain currently.

Last week, the Chief Minister said 30 staff were being added to the team to help it cope, but Express understands that they are likely to need more.

Referring to the postponement of what had been dubbed ‘Freedom Day’ on Thursday, the Chief Minister said it was “with regret that we’re not in the position to enable full reconnection at this point in time”.

“We had originally agreed an additional 10 days to allow for more Islanders to receive first and second doses of the vaccine, and while vaccination rates are increasing week on week, we are also seeing increased cases and so need to proceed with caution,” he explained.

“Ministers will continue to review the current position and work with STAC and Public Health to provide future updates.”

Health Minister Deputy Richard Renouf added: "We expect to continue to see high case numbers of covid-19 in the Island over the coming weeks. This means that Islanders have an increased likelihood of being a direct contact of someone positive with the virus.

"With expanding vaccination coverage, we are learning to live with and manage covid in new ways. Cases are increasing, but the risk of severe illness and hospitalisation is lower due to the protection afforded by vaccination. We are strongly encouraging Islanders to adhere to public health guidance, particularly wearing masks in public places."

As part of the Common Travel Area, fully vaccinated adults can still travel to Guernsey without restrictions.