Climate change: “Why would I believe that the science is settled?”

Tuesday 02 August 2022

Are humans responsible for exacerbating climate change? And does it matter if we are? If you ask Deputy Bob Murray, the answer to both these questions is “no”, and he would ask you to “do your own research”.

Express spoke to Deputy Murray following his recent States’ vote against appointing a panel of experts to help Guernsey achieve “net zero”.

When Express asked him a series of questions about the recent heatwave and its link to climate change, Deputy Murray chose not to offer a statement but come into the office instead and explain his views on climate change.

“Weather and climate change are not the same thing at all. An isolated weather incident does not make a climate, it does not indicate climate change,” he said, referring to Guernsey's second hottest day on record on Monday 18 July. 

“[It was] admittedly, a record temperature… but in 1976 we had record temperatures for two months. If we are saying, for example… that the increasing CO2 in the atmosphere is what is causing global warming – man-made, anthropogenic - why has it taken half a century for Guernsey to get a repeat for a day and half of what happened half a century ago for two months. 

“Would it not continue to increase all the time? That doesn’t make sense.”

Deputy Murray argues that the popular narrative is “utter nonsense” and while there are parts of it that are provable, there are huge parts that are actually unproven or at odds with historic data.

“This is not my opinion, this is something you can find in scientific journals and books. If you want to look, but most people don’t.”

He takes issue with the well-known hockey stick graph, created by scientist Michael Mann and published in 1998, which shows an increase in temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere and was used as the centrepoint for a report published by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

The IPCC used the graph to visualise humanity's impact on earth’s climate.

“Michael Mann has a lot to answer for. The hockey stick he came up with was very dramatic… except that what he’d done was he’d missed out two key factors. He’d missed out the little ice age and he’d missed out the medieval warming period. Those two factors, plus the fact this his scientific research was based on a model that created a hocky stick whatever data you put into it…"

Deputy Murray also claimed that Mr Mann had gone against IPCC advice and used tree rings to record global temperatures.

“Ignoring periods of time and using data which is unreliable at best and using a program that gives you a hockey stick whatever you put into it… that was accepted by the IPCC as evidence of man-made global warming. Totally ridiculous.”

Deputy Murray was also critical of the “green movement”, suggesting that it is a symptom of “virtue signaling”.

“The green movement is trying to preserve a high energy lifestyle without the guilt,” he said.

“Of course, you want to limit the amount of cars you have in Guernsey, because it’s not good for any of us at the end of the day.

“But to say you can’t have one, because you need to be using active travel, is ridiculous. 

“It’s an ideal at the end of the day. I’d love people to do active travel if they want to if they want to… but you don’t start creating housing estates where you are almost forced to have active travel. That is discriminatory."

“I tell you what concerns me most,” continued Deputy Murray, “that this has been promoted as a) our fault and b) something that can be solved by removing fossil fuels. 

“Removing fossil fuels is going to create huge economic disaster.”

Express posited that Deputy Murray could be considered to be in the minority, with global consensus leaning towards carbon neutrality.

“Oh yeah, that scares me. Changing direction to remove or reduce the most cost-effective energy solution we’ve got, in favour of an ideal, is not the way to do things. 

“I do not want Guernsey people penalised for the virtue signalling of a number of people.”

READ MORE…

Deputies clarify climate change views 

"Science works on the concept of warrant, not proof"