Canaccord strategist warns political theatrics worry investors most

Friday 28 September 2018

One of the finance industry's top strategists has warned ongoing political theatrics around Brexit and the election of Donald Trump are putting some investors off moving their money.

Chief US strategist for Canaccord Genuity Wealth Management, Tony Dwyer, was recently in Guernsey to speak to more than 100 delegates at a conference where he spoke about data patterns and business confidence.

He said there is still a positive perception surrounding investments and that is often met with surprise within the industry due to the ongoing political theatrics which often lead to economic turmoil.

"There's more surprise in places like Guernsey that the environment can be so good from a business standpoint in the US, with such political theatrics.

"How can you have consumer confidence near a historic high, and political confidence near a historic low? It's because as long as you are making money and have access to a loan, in other words a bank is willing to give you money, then you're happier - and the analogy I used here was when I went out from the harbour this morning in Guernsey, there's a fisherman and he's getting his boat ready to go out and check his pots. 

"I turned to my friend and said, I bet he doesn't really care what they're saying about Brexit this morning, he just wants his pots to be full. And the pots are full in the US."

Mr Dwyer said the fear of the unknown regarding Brexit is having an impact and he can't advise around that as he works on data, which isn't yet available.

"You don't have any real definition of legislative change so there really isn't much you can say with any intelligence. You don't know if it's a deal or no deal so how can you change your portfolio based upon something which has yet to be determined. Yes you could guess, but we don't do that at Cannacord. We look at the data, evaluate the data and the policy and say 'this is what you should do', but there is no policy so you can't do that. So what we've done, especially in the US is just fallen back to, 'are people making more money?', yes historically so, and do they have access to loans to buy houses and cars and fun stuff like that, and yes, historically so. And so, the news makes for great drama and conversation at dinner parties, but not so much when it comes to how much you make and how much you borrow. Those are good."

He added that investment markets aren't too negatively affected by the political dramas at the moment, but he said that is always liable to change.

"Once the decisions are made, and if its a no deal then thats a different parameter but we have good UK strategist and a chief investment officer who's following that in London closer than me. 

"From a US stand point we're kind of watching it, with a keen eye, but there's nothing to really do yet."

Mr Dwyer visits Guernsey at least once a year.

Pictured: Tony Dwyer.