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An expert report on Aurigny’s reliability problems will be delivered “within weeks,” the political board responsible has said.
The States’ Trading Supervisory Board, which acts as shareholder representative for the States-owned airline, announced the independent expert inquiry last month after a series of delays affected its operations.
It has now commissioned commercial aviation advisors PA Consulting to conduct the review.
It will be led jointly by two of PA’s aviation experts, Captain Doug Brown and Mark Elliott, who have more than 75 years’ combined experience working in the airline industry.
The inquiry will focus on whether Aurigny’s planned fleet can deliver the reliable and resilient air links the island needs and will also examine the fleet transition implemented this year.
It follows a period of disruption, partly as a result of the airline’s fleet rationalisation, as it sold the Embraer jet to focus on servicing its core network using predominantly ATR aircraft.
The terms of reference for the review were published last week.
They include an assessment of the airline’s capacity to service the current network once the fleet transition is complete, how the changeover has been managed, and whether the various events that have impacted Aurigny’s reliability could reasonably have been foreseen. The review will cost around £65,000.
Captain Doug Brown: Subject matter expert - Flight Operations
Capt. Brown is an experienced pilot and senior flight operations manager. He retired from British Airways as Chief Pilot Boeing Fleet after a career of over forty years with the UK’s flagship carrier. He has commanded multiple aircraft types and has held type ratings on Boeing 747, 777, 757/767 aircraft among other narrow-body types.
Capt. Brown’s time in flight operations leadership saw him responsible for significant aspects of fleet management, flight technical, fleet operations and the aircrew management of an 1,800 pilot workforce, operating a fleet of more than 110 aircraft.
His key responsibilities during his operations management career included the management of flight safety and pilot operating standards, pilot welfare and wellbeing, operations integrity, and he has engaged with the UK Civil Aviation Authority across many disciplines.
In his role as a Senior Adviser to PA Consulting, Capt. Brown helps advise airline clients on all flight operations and flight crew-related matters that include the relationship with flight crew trade unions, regulators, and operational improvement initiatives.
Mark Elliott: Subject matter expert - Airline Finance
Mr Elliott is an experienced finance professional who has worked in the airline industry for 34 years.
He is a former Finance Director at a European based airline and CFO at a Middle East airline and has held various Financial Controller positions for both commercial and operational areas at British Airways including Flight Operations, Inflight Services, Catering and Ground Operations.
He also has much experience at purchasing, financing and leasing out aircraft and has project managed the set-up of an aircraft leasing company and was retained as a Project Manager and Board Advisor.
In his career at PA Consulting, Mr Elliott helps aviation clients, typically at shareholder, Board and C-suite level, identify and implement profit improvement initiatives and leads airline and airport operational efficiency assignments for PA’s aviation clients.
He takes the lead on projects that require a focus on competitor benchmarking and improving an airline’s operational performance and cost efficiency.
The purpose of this part of the Inquiry is to provide assurance on whether or not Aurigny’s network and fleet configuration will provide the necessary levels of reliability and resilience for firstly the lifeline and then the other routes provided by the airline. It will need to:
• Review Aurigny’s planned schedules, aircraft and crew rotas and the planning assumptions that underpin those;
• Undertake a sensitivity analysis of the above to provide assurance on whether or not Aurigny has sufficient planned resources to operate reliably its proposed schedules on its lifeline routes;
• Provide assurance on whether or not Aurigny has sufficiently high levels of redundancy and resilience built into its operations and planning assumptions such that its operations can be recovered in a timely manner in the event of weather, technical or other unforeseen disruption and delays;
• Review what policies and procedures Aurigny has in place on the priority to be given to the recovery of services on lifeline routes in the event of flight disruption and delays;
• To make recommendations on any of the above as required.
In reporting on the above, the Review should take into account and comment on: the Shareholder Objectives set for Aurigny by the States of Guernsey; the different ages and maintenance schedules of the ATR fleet that it is anticipated will be in place by October; Aurigny’s historic on-time performance and cancellation rates and benchmark equivalents in Jersey and the Isle of Man.
The purpose of this part of the Inquiry is to determine whether or not the fleet transition plan implemented by Aurigny during 2024 was sufficiently robust and could have reasonably foreseen the issues that have arisen. It will need to:
• Review and identify the factors that have negatively impacted implementation of the fleet transition plan, with the consequential impact on operational performance (on-time performance and cancellation rates);
• Identify the causes of and accountabilities for the aforementioned factors and comment on the reasonableness and adequacy of key decisions made by Aurigny’s in response to those;
• Assess Aurigny’s approach to risk management in both the development and implementation of the fleet transition plan and comment on the robustness of the risks and mitigations that were identified;
• Determine whether key milestones and decisions in respect of the fleet transition process were properly identified and considered by Aurigny and whether or not the timing of those were appropriate.
In reporting on the above, the Inquiry should take into account and comment on, inter alia:
Shareholder Objectives set for Aurigny by the States of Guernsey; the operational constraints under which Aurigny operates, including slot times and airport opening times; and, the oversight of the fleet transition process by the Aurigny Board.
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